Jelly
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$28.58
28.58 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.12%
EV $25.76 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
47.97%
1 openings, odds method
Variance
3.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 1 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1207, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified$28.5828.58 CSGOBIG_COIN$13.7113.71 CSGOBIG_COIN0.48x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.12%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $28.58 | 90.12% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.3%classified 29.6%restricted 21.5%knifes 1.5%covert knife 2.3%exotic 9.3%mil spec 25.5%best hit —