Mystic Lamp
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$31.22
31.22 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.07%
EV $28.12 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
53.01%
6 openings, odds method
Variance
2.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 6 openings and 1.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1212, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Covert$31.2231.22 CSGOBIG_COIN$49.8449.84 CSGOBIG_COIN1.60x
R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet$31.2231.22 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.603.6 CSGOBIG_COIN0.12x
USP-S | Blueprint (Factory New)weapon · mil specLouisInRussian$31.2231.22 CSGOBIG_COIN$29.7029.7 CSGOBIG_COIN0.95x
MAC-10 | Propaganda (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6$31.2231.22 CSGOBIG_COIN$6.986.98 CSGOBIG_COIN0.22x
R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet$31.2231.22 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.603.6 CSGOBIG_COIN0.12x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.07%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $31.22 | 90.07% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 7.0%extraordinary 0.1%#d32ce6 1.7%covert knife 8.3%Covert 11.6%mil spec 14.7%classified 10.4%milspec 13.4%Restricted 8.0%#d32ee6 5.9%red 5.0%violet 13.9%best hit —