Rotten Luck
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$48.34
48.34 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.06%
EV $43.53 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
43.26%
3 openings, odds method
Variance
5.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 3 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1213, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | chopper (Foil) | London 2018sticker · #8847FF$48.3448.34 CSGOBIG_COIN$18.5518.55 CSGOBIG_COIN0.38x
Sticker | Team EnVyUs (Foil) | Cologne 2016sticker · #d32ce6✪ G0DBLiiZiKE$48.3448.34 CSGOBIG_COIN$25.6425.64 CSGOBIG_COIN0.53x
Sticker | chopper (Foil) | London 2018sticker · #8847FF$48.3448.34 CSGOBIG_COIN$18.5518.55 CSGOBIG_COIN0.38x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.06%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $48.34 | 90.06% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 9.8%restricted 32.9%Covert 5.8%#8847FF 24.6%#d32ce6 12.3%classified 14.6%best hit —