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A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$24.67
24.67 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.11%
EV $22.23 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
51.22%
3 openings, odds method
Variance
6.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 3 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1214, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Autograph Capsule | Team SoloMid | Cologne 2015other · #B0C3D9$24.6724.67 CSGOBIG_COIN$8.838.83 CSGOBIG_COIN0.36x
M4A4 | The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$24.6724.67 CSGOBIG_COIN$16.0816.08 CSGOBIG_COIN0.65x
Autograph Capsule | G2 Esports | MLG Columbus 2016other · #B0C3D9tody$24.6724.67 CSGOBIG_COIN$13.0013 CSGOBIG_COIN0.53x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.11%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $24.67 | 90.11% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 9.9%#EB4B4B 7.9%covert knife 0.6%knifes 1.1%classified 7.9%Restricted 5.6%#B0C3D9 45.3%restricted 21.7%best hit —