Shipment
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$93.55
93.55 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.05%
EV $84.24 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
66.10%
4 openings, odds method
Variance
7.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
64.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 4 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1215, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
AK-47 | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)weapon · classified$93.5593.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$148148 CSGOBIG_COIN1.59x
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Graven (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$93.5593.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$55.5555.55 CSGOBIG_COIN0.59x
Half-Life: Alyx Collectible Pins Capsulecontainer · #B0C3D9$93.5593.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$10.2110.21 CSGOBIG_COIN0.11x
Sticker | fer | Cologne 2015sticker · #4B69FFtabb3n$93.5593.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$33.3033.3 CSGOBIG_COIN0.36x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.05%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $93.55 | 90.05% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.4%sunny 0.1%#EB4B4B 12.9%classified 13.8%covert knife 14.3%Restricted 19.3%#4B69FF 12.7%restricted 23.0%#B0C3D9 3.5%best hit —