Incognito
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$143.55
144 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.04%
EV $129.26 from 20 items
Observed RTP, 30d
13.49%
1 openings, odds method
Variance
19.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 15
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 1 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1217, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red$144144 CSGOBIG_COIN$19.3619.36 CSGOBIG_COIN0.13x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.04%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $144 | 90.04% | 20 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedremarkable 0.1%legendary 0.3%covert 13.9%extraordinary 0.4%classified 0.2%#EB4B4B 33.3%covert knife 4.9%gold 13.9%#8847FF 14.0%exotic 11.8%red 7.3%best hit —