Maekes
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$203.79
204 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $183.38 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
0.47%
18 openings, odds method
Variance
76.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 167
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 18 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable | 1 in 1,000 | $43K 42,972 CSGOBIG_COIN | 23.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable | 1 in 200 | $13.6K 13,550 CSGOBIG_COIN | 36.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 250 | $9,947 9,947 CSGOBIG_COIN | 21.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted | 1 in 133 | $2,200 2,200 CSGOBIG_COIN | 9.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 400 | $1,900 1,900 CSGOBIG_COIN | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $1,066 1,066 CSGOBIG_COIN | 5.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 1,111 | $43.00 43 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Sticker | Stupid Banana (Foil)sticker · exotic | 96.9% | $0.95 0.95 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.5% | 18 | 17.4 | 1.03× |
| PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9 | 1 in 10,000 | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1219, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $204 | 89.98% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedremarkable 0.6%covert 1.7%restricted 0.8%classified 0.1%exotic 96.9%#B0C3D9 0.0%best hit —