Nebula Nightfall

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$75.00

75 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $67.50 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

2.64%

3 openings, odds method

Variance

31.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 11

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

3 openings · below min

7 days

3 openings · below min

30 days

3 openings · below min

since tracking started

3 openings · below min

-0.5%318.3%637.0%

Small sample. 3 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3	2.64%±633.8	—	odds
7d	3	2.64%±633.8	—	odds
30d	3	2.64%±633.8	—	odds
All	3	2.64%±633.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$12.8K 12,777 CSGOBIG_COIN	18.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · rare	1 in 65	$439 439 CSGOBIG_COIN	10.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 13	$375 375 CSGOBIG_COIN	42.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 33	$280 280 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 22	$195 195 CSGOBIG_COIN	13.1%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Faded Zebra (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	12.1%	$4.49 4.49 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.8%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	15.1%	$3.99 3.99 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.9%	0	0.5	—
FAMAS \| Night Borre (Factory New)weapon · consumer	10.6%	$2.47 2.47 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.4%	1	0.3	—
R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	16.6%	$1.94 1.94 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.5%	1	0.5	—
CZ75-Auto \| Midnight Palm (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	13.6%	$1.54 1.54 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	1	0.4	—
AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 16	$1.49 1.49 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	0	0.2	—
P250 \| Forest Night (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 11	$0.99 0.99 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	0	0.3	—

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=122, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$75.0075 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.941.94 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x10h

CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon$75.0075 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.541.54 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x13h

FAMAS | Night Borre (Factory New)weapon · consumer$75.0075 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.472.47 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x13h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$75.00	90.00%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 7.7%rare 1.5%#ffd700 3.1%covert knife 4.6%milspec 12.1%Restricted 15.1%consumer 10.6%classified 16.6%uncommon 13.6%restricted 6.1%Consumer Grade 9.1%best hit —