Ripe Harvest
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$163.44
163 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.04%
EV $147.16 from 20 items
Observed RTP, 30d
33.54%
25 openings, odds method
Variance
103.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 41
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 25 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 25 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1220, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$163163 CSGOBIG_COIN$29.6529.65 CSGOBIG_COIN0.18x
StatTrak™ AUG | Chameleon (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$163163 CSGOBIG_COIN$11.2011.2 CSGOBIG_COIN0.07x
StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$163163 CSGOBIG_COIN$29.6529.65 CSGOBIG_COIN0.18x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.04%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $163 | 90.04% | 20 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#EB4B4B 6.7%base 0.1%contraband 0.1%covert 29.1%epic 0.1%mil spec 10.1%pink 20.4%restricted 22.7%Consumer Grade 5.2%high 5.5%best hit —