Monster Lab

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$7.33

7.33 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.09%

EV $6.60 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

60.72%

28 openings, odds method

Variance

6.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

26 openings · below min

30 days

28 openings · below min

since tracking started

28 openings · below min

-0.5%80.3%161.0%

Small sample. 28 openings and 3.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	26	63.96%±96.5	—	odds
30d	28	60.72%±92.9	—	odds
All	28	60.72%±92.9	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonetknife · covert	1 in 10,000	$203 203 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 68	$150 150 CSGOBIG_COIN	33.2%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Entombed (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 10	$18.81 18.81 CSGOBIG_COIN	27.5%	4	2.7	1.48×
Little Kev \| The Professionalsagent · exceptional	15.7%	$8.08 8.08 CSGOBIG_COIN	19.2%	1	4.4	0.23×
Sticker \| gxx- (Gold) \| Paris 2023sticker · extraordinary	16.4%	$4.39 4.39 CSGOBIG_COIN	10.9%	5	4.6	1.09×
StatTrak™ Negev \| Lionfish (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	11.2%	$2.51 2.51 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.3%	4	3.1	1.27×
Souvenir MAG-7 \| Copper Coated (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF	10.2%	$1.50 1.5 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.3%	3	2.9	1.05×
SG 553 \| Triarch (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	11.0%	$0.64 0.64 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.1%	4	3.1	1.30×
Souvenir P250 \| Bone Mask (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 11	$0.42 0.42 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.6%	3	2.7	1.13×
Tec-9 \| Jambiya (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 12	$0.27 0.27 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	2	2.3	0.86×
G3SG1 \| Keeping Tabs (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 15	$0.23 0.23 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	2	1.8	1.09×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1225, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Souvenir MAG-7 | Copper Coated (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF$7.337.33 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.501.5 CSGOBIG_COIN0.20x1d

StatTrak™ Negev | Lionfish (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$7.337.33 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.512.51 CSGOBIG_COIN0.34x1d

Souvenir MAG-7 | Copper Coated (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF$7.337.33 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.501.5 CSGOBIG_COIN0.20x1d

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$7.337.33 CSGOBIG_COIN$18.8118.81 CSGOBIG_COIN2.57x1d

SG 553 | Triarch (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical$7.337.33 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.640.64 CSGOBIG_COIN0.09x1d

Sticker | gxx- (Gold) | Paris 2023sticker · extraordinaryJGHD23YT$7.337.33 CSGOBIG_COIN$4.394.39 CSGOBIG_COIN0.60x1d

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$7.337.33 CSGOBIG_COIN$18.8118.81 CSGOBIG_COIN2.57x1d

StatTrak™ Negev | Lionfish (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$7.337.33 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.512.51 CSGOBIG_COIN0.34x1d

Tec-9 | Jambiya (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$7.337.33 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.270.27 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x1d

G3SG1 | Keeping Tabs (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec$7.337.33 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.230.23 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.09%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$7.33	90.09%	11

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.5%Classified 9.7%exceptional 15.7%extraordinary 16.4%Restricted 11.2%#4B69FF 10.2%Mythical 11.0%Consumer Grade 9.5%mil spec 8.3%Mil Spec 6.5%best hit —