Reaper
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$13.55
13.55 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.94%
EV $12.19 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
31.26%
23 openings, odds method
Variance
13.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 55
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 23 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 29 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1226, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | es3tag (Holo) | Rio 2022sticker · #D32CE6$13.5513.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.741.74 CSGOBIG_COIN0.13x
Sticker | es3tag (Holo) | Rio 2022sticker · #D32CE6$13.5513.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.741.74 CSGOBIG_COIN0.13x
StatTrak™ Nova | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$13.5513.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$22.3022.3 CSGOBIG_COIN1.65x
Nova | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial$13.5513.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.980.98 CSGOBIG_COIN0.07x
Sticker | es3tag (Holo) | Rio 2022sticker · #D32CE6$13.5513.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.741.74 CSGOBIG_COIN0.13x
StatTrak™ USP-S | Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$13.5513.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.323.32 CSGOBIG_COIN0.25x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.94%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $13.55 | 89.94% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.0%covert knife 1.0%classified 11.9%Legendary 19.4%milspec 20.8%#D32CE6 22.2%industrial 22.7%best hit —