Scarecrow

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$2.43

2.43 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

89.89%

EV $2.18 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

113.63%

25 openings, odds method

Variance

5.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

22 openings · below min

30 days

25 openings · below min

since tracking started

25 openings · below min

19.5%123.5%227.5%

Small sample. 25 openings and 4.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	22	127.05%±99.7	—	odds
30d	25	113.63%±93.5	—	odds
All	25	113.63%±93.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 25 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$341 341 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Leather (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,012	$120 120 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.4%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 144	$20.37 20.37 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.5%	1	0.2	—
Sticker \| EliGE (Gold) \| Rio 2022sticker · #EB4B4B	1 in 14	$9.54 9.54 CSGOBIG_COIN	30.6%	1	1.7	0.57×
Antwerp 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Packagecontainer · #B0C3D9	11.2%	$4.34 4.34 CSGOBIG_COIN	22.2%	5	2.8	1.79×
USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	16.6%	$2.10 2.1 CSGOBIG_COIN	16.0%	5	4.2	1.20×
Sticker \| fer \| Krakow 2017sticker · #4B69FF	15.4%	$1.28 1.28 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.0%	2	3.9	0.52×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Triarch (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	11.0%	$0.73 0.73 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.7%	1	2.7	0.36×
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	11.0%	$0.39 0.39 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.0%	5	2.7	1.82×
MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 12	$0.36 0.36 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.4%	4	2.1	1.91×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Triqua (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 13	$0.24 0.24 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.8%	1	1.9	0.54×
CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	11.2%	$0.17 0.17 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.9%	0	2.8	0.00×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1227, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAC-10 | Rangeen (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec$2.432.43 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.360.36 CSGOBIG_COIN0.15x1d

USP-S | Cortex (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified$2.432.43 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.102.1 CSGOBIG_COIN0.86x1d

MAC-10 | Rangeen (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec$2.432.43 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.360.36 CSGOBIG_COIN0.15x4d

Antwerp 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Packagecontainer · #B0C3D9$2.432.43 CSGOBIG_COIN$4.344.34 CSGOBIG_COIN1.79x4d

Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$2.432.43 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.390.39 CSGOBIG_COIN0.16x4d

Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$2.432.43 CSGOBIG_COIN$20.3720.37 CSGOBIG_COIN8.38x4d

Antwerp 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Packagecontainer · #B0C3D9$2.432.43 CSGOBIG_COIN$4.344.34 CSGOBIG_COIN1.79x4d

USP-S | Cortex (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified$2.432.43 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.102.1 CSGOBIG_COIN0.86x4d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.89%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$2.43	89.89%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.7%extraordinary 0.1%#EB4B4B 7.0%#B0C3D9 11.2%Classified 16.6%#4B69FF 15.4%restricted 11.0%mil spec 11.0%milspec 15.8%Rare 11.2%best hit —