Toxic Slime

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$21.55

21.55 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

89.95%

EV $19.38 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

56.56%

17 openings, odds method

Variance

8.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 14

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

2 openings · below min

7 days

14 openings · below min

30 days

17 openings · below min

since tracking started

17 openings · below min

-0.5%202.5%405.5%

Small sample. 17 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2	10.12%±394.8	—	odds
7d	14	64.16%±149.2	—	odds
30d	17	56.56%±135.4	—	odds
All	17	56.56%±135.4	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 17 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 2,000	$1,493 1,493 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 2,000	$969 969 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.5%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$575 575 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 1,000	$403 403 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$233 233 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 15	$170 170 CSGOBIG_COIN	60.5%	1	1.2	0.85×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 714	$140 140 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 500	$69.57 69.57 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.7%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir AWP \| Acheron (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF	1 in 12	$28.50 28.5 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.5%	0	1.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	14.7%	$9.29 9.29 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.0%	1	2.5	0.40×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Djinn (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	18.1%	$3.48 3.48 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.3%	3	3.1	0.97×
FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	17.3%	$2.18 2.18 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.9%	5	2.9	1.70×
Sealed Graffiti \| Hop (Bazooka Pink)graffiti · #B0C3D9	12.6%	$1.27 1.27 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.8%	4	2.2	1.86×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Destroyer (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec	13.9%	$0.61 0.61 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.4%	1	2.4	0.42×
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Assault (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF	1 in 14	$0.45 0.45 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	2	1.2	1.61×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1228, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkosamabeenlaidin$21.5521.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.182.18 CSGOBIG_COIN0.10x2h

FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Well-Worn)weapon · pink$21.5521.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.182.18 CSGOBIG_COIN0.10x2h

Sealed Graffiti | Hop (Bazooka Pink)graffiti · #B0C3D9$21.5521.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.271.27 CSGOBIG_COIN0.06x1d

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Assault (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF$21.5521.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.450.45 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x1d

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Djinn (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified$21.5521.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.483.48 CSGOBIG_COIN0.16x1d

FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Well-Worn)weapon · pink$21.5521.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.182.18 CSGOBIG_COIN0.10x1d

Sealed Graffiti | Hop (Bazooka Pink)graffiti · #B0C3D9$21.5521.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.271.27 CSGOBIG_COIN0.06x1d

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Assault (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FFave$21.5521.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.450.45 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x1d

★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Stained (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B$21.5521.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$170170 CSGOBIG_COIN7.89x2d

Sealed Graffiti | Hop (Bazooka Pink)graffiti · #B0C3D9$21.5521.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.271.27 CSGOBIG_COIN0.06x4d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.95%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$21.55	89.95%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.3%epic 0.1%extraordinary 0.1%#EB4B4B 6.9%gold 0.2%#4B69FF 15.8%#d32ee6 14.7%classified 18.1%pink 17.3%#B0C3D9 12.6%Mil Spec 13.9%best hit —