Fruitless

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$23.44

23.44 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

89.96%

EV $21.09 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

103.82%

29 openings, odds method

Variance

14.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 20

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

94.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

28 openings · below min

30 days

29 openings · below min

since tracking started

29 openings · below min

-0.5%123.5%247.5%

Small sample. 29 openings and 1.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	28	107.26%±139.6	—	odds
30d	29	103.82%±137.2	—	odds
All	29	103.82%±137.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 29 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$3,613 3,613 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$2,082 2,082 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$1,299 1,299 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.1%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$508 508 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 21	$276 276 CSGOBIG_COIN	61.6%	2	1.4	1.47×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$96.59 96.59 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.9%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 250	$32.71 32.71 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.6%	0	0.1	—
Sticker \| f0rest (Foil) \| Cologne 2016sticker · #D32CE6	13.4%	$19.93 19.93 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.7%	4	3.9	1.03×
Souvenir FAMAS \| Styx (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	17.4%	$7.81 7.81 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.4%	5	5.0	0.99×
Sticker \| jabbi (Holo) \| Antwerp 2022sticker · #D32CE6	23.3%	$2.59 2.59 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.9%	8	6.8	1.18×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	22.0%	$1.74 1.74 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.8%	4	6.4	0.63×
Sticker \| apEX (Holo) \| Rio 2022sticker · #D32CE6	18.3%	$1.05 1.05 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.9%	6	5.3	1.13×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1229, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | jabbi (Holo) | Antwerp 2022sticker · #D32CE6$23.4423.44 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.592.59 CSGOBIG_COIN0.11x2d

StatTrak™ MP7 | Cirrus (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$23.4423.44 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.741.74 CSGOBIG_COIN0.07x2d

Sticker | jabbi (Holo) | Antwerp 2022sticker · #D32CE6$23.4423.44 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.592.59 CSGOBIG_COIN0.11x2d

StatTrak™ MP7 | Cirrus (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspecilovebigspins$23.4423.44 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.741.74 CSGOBIG_COIN0.07x2d

Souvenir FAMAS | Styx (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$23.4423.44 CSGOBIG_COIN$7.817.81 CSGOBIG_COIN0.33x3d

Sticker | jabbi (Holo) | Antwerp 2022sticker · #D32CE6ROSSI - SKINS$23.4423.44 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.592.59 CSGOBIG_COIN0.11x4d

Sticker | jabbi (Holo) | Antwerp 2022sticker · #D32CE6$23.4423.44 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.592.59 CSGOBIG_COIN0.11x4d

Sticker | f0rest (Foil) | Cologne 2016sticker · #D32CE6$23.4423.44 CSGOBIG_COIN$19.9319.93 CSGOBIG_COIN0.85x4d

Sticker | apEX (Holo) | Rio 2022sticker · #D32CE6$23.4423.44 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.051.05 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x4d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.96%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$23.44	89.96%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 0.1%covert 5.0%Ancient 0.4%#D32CE6 55.1%restricted 17.4%milspec 22.0%best hit —