Fried

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$17.44

17.44 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

89.92%

EV $15.68 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

103.79%

44 openings, odds method

Variance

11.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 19

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

1 openings · below min

7 days

38 openings · below min

30 days

44 openings · below min

since tracking started

44 openings · below min

-0.5%342.0%684.5%

Small sample. 44 openings and 2.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1	21.22%±662.9	—	odds
7d	38	119.16%±107.5	—	odds
30d	44	103.79%±99.9	—	odds
All	44	103.79%±99.9	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 44 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 10,000	$2,535 2,535 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,673 1,673 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$1,054 1,054 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 20	$216 216 CSGOBIG_COIN	70.1%	3	2.2	1.34×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)weapon · covert · Phase 3	1 in 24	$46.67 46.67 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.2%	2	1.8	1.11×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	12.2%	$8.76 8.76 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.8%	2	5.4	0.37×
Sticker \| TeSeS (Holo) \| Antwerp 2022sticker · Legendary	13.7%	$3.70 3.7 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.2%	5	6.0	0.83×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	15.8%	$1.48 1.48 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.5%	6	7.0	0.86×
MP5-SD \| Acid Wash (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	16.0%	$0.77 0.77 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.8%	4	7.0	0.57×
Sealed Graffiti \| Smirk (Bazooka Pink)graffiti · #B0C3D9	15.7%	$0.42 0.42 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.4%	14	6.9	2.02×
Sticker \| Ethan \| Katowice 2019sticker · #4B69FF	13.3%	$0.31 0.31 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	7	5.8	1.20×
Sticker \| Roosty Boostysticker · Rare	1 in 25	$0.28 0.28 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	1	1.8	0.56×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1234, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | TeSeS (Holo) | Antwerp 2022sticker · Legendary$17.4417.44 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.703.7 CSGOBIG_COIN0.21x14h

StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$17.4417.44 CSGOBIG_COIN$8.768.76 CSGOBIG_COIN0.50x2d

StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$17.4417.44 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.481.48 CSGOBIG_COIN0.08x2d

Sticker | Roosty Boostysticker · Rare$17.4417.44 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.280.28 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x3d

Sealed Graffiti | Smirk (Bazooka Pink)graffiti · #B0C3D9$17.4417.44 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.420.42 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x3d

Sticker | Ethan | Katowice 2019sticker · #4B69FFMeg$17.4417.44 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.310.31 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x3d

MP5-SD | Acid Wash (Factory New)weapon · mil specMeg$17.4417.44 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.770.77 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x3d

Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)weapon · covert · Phase 3$17.4417.44 CSGOBIG_COIN$46.6746.67 CSGOBIG_COIN2.68x4d

Sticker | Ethan | Katowice 2019sticker · #4B69FF$17.4417.44 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.310.31 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x4d

Sealed Graffiti | Smirk (Bazooka Pink)graffiti · #B0C3D9$17.4417.44 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.420.42 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x4d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$17.44	89.92%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%covert 4.1%covert knife 5.1%restricted 12.2%Legendary 13.7%milspec 15.8%mil spec 16.0%#B0C3D9 15.7%#4B69FF 13.3%Rare 4.0%best hit —