Peanut
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$26.43
26.43 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.94%
EV $23.77 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
3.29%
2 openings, odds method
Variance
5.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 2 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1236, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sealed Graffiti | Applause (War Pig Pink)graffiti · #B0C3D9PhukFace$26.4326.43 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.280.28 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x
Sticker | kyxsan (Holo) | Paris 2023sticker · #D32CE6$26.4326.43 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.461.46 CSGOBIG_COIN0.06x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.94%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $26.43 | 89.94% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 8.1%rare 0.1%restricted 28.9%High Grade 15.1%#D32CE6 27.1%milspec 8.6%#B0C3D9 7.7%Rare 4.4%best hit —