Lost Atlantis
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$20.00
20 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $18.00 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
118.76%
65 openings, odds method
Variance
35.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 65 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 73 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=126, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$20.0020 CSGOBIG_COIN$1,1981,198 CSGOBIG_COIN59.90x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knifePetFog$20.0020 CSGOBIG_COIN$1,1981,198 CSGOBIG_COIN59.90x
Latest dropsnewest first
CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon$20.0020 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.830.83 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x
MAC-10 | Oceanic (Well-Worn)weapon · milspecFirsty91$20.0020 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.290.29 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x
M4A1-S | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$20.0020 CSGOBIG_COIN$26.7826.78 CSGOBIG_COIN1.34x
Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$20.0020 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.560.56 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x
StatTrak™ AWP | Corticera (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$20.0020 CSGOBIG_COIN$27.9427.94 CSGOBIG_COIN1.40x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $20.00 | 90.00% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 1.0%classified 12.0%restricted 13.6%mil spec 31.4%uncommon 10.5%Uncommon 12.0%milspec 19.5%best hit $1,198 (59.90x)