The Alpha
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$32.00
32 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $28.80 from 20 items
Observed RTP, 30d
10.12%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
5.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 1.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=13, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | Cloud9 (Holo) | Katowice 2019sticker · remarkable$32.0032 CSGOBIG_COIN$8.458.45 CSGOBIG_COIN0.26x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$32.0032 CSGOBIG_COIN$14.4414.44 CSGOBIG_COIN0.45x
'Medium Rare' Crasswater | Guerrilla Warfareagent · Master$32.0032 CSGOBIG_COIN$8.018.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.25x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $32.00 | 90.00% | 20 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed2 5.5%legendary 0.3%extraordinary 0.7%Classified 5.0%covert knife 2.5%Immortal 4.3%covert 10.4%classified 9.2%milspec 8.0%remarkable 8.0%Master 8.6%Legendary 4.9%#EB4B4B 3.7%#4B69FF 10.4%restricted 1.8%#8847FF 6.1%#5E98D9 7.4%#B0C3D9 3.1%best hit —