Coded
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$19.18
19.18 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $17.26 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
8.34%
1 openings, odds method
Variance
31.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 1 openings and 0.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir M4A1-S | Control Panel (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · #D32CE6 | 1 in 100 | $1,075 1,075 CSGOBIG_COIN | 62.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $125 125 CSGOBIG_COIN | 14.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| M4A1-S | Control Panel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6 | 40.0% | $7.75 7.75 CSGOBIG_COIN | 18.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| Dual Berettas | Switch Board (Factory New)weapon · Industrial | 57.0% | $1.60 1.6 CSGOBIG_COIN | 5.3% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=130, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $19.18 | 90.00% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#D32CE6 1.0%covert 2.0%#d32ee6 40.0%Industrial 57.0%best hit —