Digital Warfare
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$31.57
31.57 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $28.41 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
70.14%
8 openings, odds method
Variance
4.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 8 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted | 1 in 100 | $540 540 CSGOBIG_COIN | 19.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Head Shot (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 17 | $166 166 CSGOBIG_COIN | 35.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| M4A1-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red | 1 in 33 | $95.69 95.69 CSGOBIG_COIN | 10.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary | 25.0% | $40.10 40.1 CSGOBIG_COIN | 35.3% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.00× |
| MAG-7 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · light blue | 65.0% | $0.25 0.25 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.6% | 5 | 5.2 | 0.96× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=132, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
MAG-7 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · light blue$31.5731.57 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.250.25 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x
MAG-7 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · light blue$31.5731.57 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.250.25 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x
MAG-7 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · light blue$31.5731.57 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.250.25 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x
MAG-7 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · light blue$31.5731.57 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.250.25 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x
M4A1-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red$31.5731.57 CSGOBIG_COIN$95.6995.69 CSGOBIG_COIN3.03x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary$31.5731.57 CSGOBIG_COIN$40.1040.1 CSGOBIG_COIN1.27x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary$31.5731.57 CSGOBIG_COIN$40.1040.1 CSGOBIG_COIN1.27x
MAG-7 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · light blue$31.5731.57 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.250.25 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $31.57 | 89.99% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedRestricted 1.0%covert 6.0%red 3.0%Legendary 25.0%light blue 65.0%best hit —