Furry Party
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$15.57
15.57 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $14.01 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
64.66%
13 openings, odds method
Variance
1.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 13 openings and 2.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 10.0% | $67.00 67 CSGOBIG_COIN | 47.8% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× |
| StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 10.0% | $36.29 36.29 CSGOBIG_COIN | 25.9% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| UMP-45 | Wild Child (Factory New)weapon · pink | 10.0% | $19.69 19.69 CSGOBIG_COIN | 14.1% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.54× |
| Sticker | Unicorn (Holo)sticker · Mythical | 70.0% | $2.45 2.45 CSGOBIG_COIN | 12.2% | 10 | 9.1 | 1.10× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=133, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$15.5715.57 CSGOBIG_COIN$67.0067 CSGOBIG_COIN4.30x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $15.57 | 90.00% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.0%classified 10.0%pink 10.0%Mythical 70.0%best hit —