Obsidian Treasure
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.00
2 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.01%
EV $1.80 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
68.82%
37 openings, odds method
Variance
2.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
36.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
57.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 37 openings and 13.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 37 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ P2000 | Obsidian (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $15.00 15 CSGOBIG_COIN | 41.7% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.54× |
| StatTrak™ P2000 | Obsidian (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 31.4% | $2.38 2.38 CSGOBIG_COIN | 41.5% | 12 | 11.6 | 1.03× |
| P2000 | Obsidian (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 15 | $2.12 2.12 CSGOBIG_COIN | 7.8% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.41× |
| P2000 | Obsidian (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted | 12.8% | $1.17 1.17 CSGOBIG_COIN | 8.3% | 4 | 4.7 | 0.84× |
| Souvenir XM1014 | Hieroglyph (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #F2F8FF | 19.0% | $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.3% | 9 | 7.0 | 1.28× |
| Nova | Predator (Well-Worn)weapon · Common | 25.2% | $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.4% | 10 | 9.3 | 1.07× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=135, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir XM1014 | Hieroglyph (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #F2F8FFjust bad$2.002 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.030.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x
Souvenir XM1014 | Hieroglyph (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #F2F8FF$2.002 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.030.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x
StatTrak™ P2000 | Obsidian (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$2.002 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.382.38 CSGOBIG_COIN1.19x
StatTrak™ P2000 | Obsidian (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$2.002 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.382.38 CSGOBIG_COIN1.19x
Souvenir XM1014 | Hieroglyph (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #F2F8FF$2.002 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.030.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x
StatTrak™ P2000 | Obsidian (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$2.002 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.382.38 CSGOBIG_COIN1.19x
StatTrak™ P2000 | Obsidian (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedbelico7$2.002 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.382.38 CSGOBIG_COIN1.19x
StatTrak™ P2000 | Obsidian (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$2.002 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.382.38 CSGOBIG_COIN1.19x
StatTrak™ P2000 | Obsidian (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$2.002 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.382.38 CSGOBIG_COIN1.19x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.01%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.00 | 90.01% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 55.8%#F2F8FF 19.0%Common 25.2%best hit —