Fiery Furry

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$25.00

25 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $22.50 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

6.49%

4 openings, odds method

Variance

5.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

4 openings · below min

30 days

4 openings · below min

since tracking started

4 openings · below min

-0.5%112.5%225.5%

Small sample. 4 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	4	6.49%±218.6	—	odds
30d	4	6.49%±218.6	—	odds
All	4	6.49%±218.6	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 33	$300 300 CSGOBIG_COIN	40.0%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 11	$85.00 85 CSGOBIG_COIN	33.3%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 14	$60.85 60.85 CSGOBIG_COIN	19.9%	0	0.3	—
Sticker \| FlameZ (Gold) \| Rio 2022sticker · #EB4B4B	1 in 66	$8.13 8.13 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.5%	0	0.1	—
FAMAS \| Spitfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 34	$6.80 6.8 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.9%	0	0.1	—
MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	13.2%	$5.02 5.02 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.9%	1	0.5	—
Patch \| Wildfirepatch · #4B69FF	1 in 17	$1.47 1.47 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.4%	0	0.2	—
Sticker \| FlameZ (Holo) \| Rio 2022sticker · #D32CE6	10.3%	$1.42 1.42 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.6%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Firefight (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	14.7%	$0.93 0.93 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.6%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF	11.7%	$0.89 0.89 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.5%	0	0.5	—
Galil AR \| Firefight (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 23	$0.52 0.52 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	16.1%	$0.27 0.27 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	2	0.6	—

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=138, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Flame Test (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$25.0025 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.270.27 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x2d

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Firefight (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$25.0025 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.930.93 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x2d

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Flame Test (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$25.0025 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.270.27 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x2d

MAG-7 | Firestarter (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade$25.0025 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.025.02 CSGOBIG_COIN0.20x3d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$25.00	90.00%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 19.2%#EB4B4B 1.5%restricted 22.1%Mil Spec Grade 13.2%#4B69FF 17.6%#D32CE6 10.3%milspec 16.1%best hit —