The Setup

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$35.00

35 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $31.50 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d

32.26%

15 openings, odds method

Variance

45.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 10

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

3 openings · below min

7 days

15 openings · below min

30 days

15 openings · below min

since tracking started

15 openings · below min

-0.5%385.0%770.5%

Small sample. 15 openings and 1.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3	8.41%±761.6	—	odds
7d	15	32.26%±340.6	—	odds
30d	15	32.26%±340.6	—	odds
All	15	32.26%±340.6	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700	1 in 2,000	$8,000 8,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.7%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$5,888 5,888 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary	1 in 2,000	$2,700 2,700 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 1,000	$440 440 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 10	$160 160 CSGOBIG_COIN	48.4%	0	1.4	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 23	$140 140 CSGOBIG_COIN	19.6%	1	0.7	—
Sticker \| nitr0 (Gold) \| Berlin 2019sticker · #EB4B4B	1 in 14	$7.65 7.65 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.8%	2	1.1	1.82×
P250 \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 34	$6.60 6.6 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.6%	1	0.4	—
PP-Bizon \| Photic Zone (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	10.3%	$2.36 2.36 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.8%	1	1.5	0.65×
R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Minimal Wear)weapon · 3	1 in 19	$2.02 2.02 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	1	0.8	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Off World (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	11.0%	$0.98 0.98 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	0	1.6	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Sage Spray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #B0C3D9	1 in 11	$0.78 0.78 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	3	1.3	2.27×
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 68	$0.42 0.42 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Sealed Graffiti \| Dizzy (Battle Green)graffiti · #B0C3D9	11.7%	$0.40 0.4 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	1	1.8	0.57×
Dual Berettas \| Heist (Minimal Wear)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 45	$0.32 0.32 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	0	0.3	—
Sticker \| TYLOO (Holo) \| 2020 RMRsticker · #8847FF	1 in 15	$0.22 0.22 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	1	1.0	—
Sticker \| Watermelon Stabbyfishsticker · high	1 in 136	$0.17 0.17 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	0	0.1	—
UMP-45 \| Facility Dark (Well-Worn)weapon · #B0C3D9	1 in 12	$0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	3	1.2	2.48×
Sealed Graffiti \| Take Flight (Dust Brown)graffiti · #B0C3D9	1 in 27	$0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	1	0.6	—
Tec-9 \| Army Mesh (Minimal Wear)weapon · #B0C3D9	1 in 17	$0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	0	0.9	—

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=14, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sealed Graffiti | Dizzy (Battle Green)graffiti · #B0C3D9Dick to small to Fit$35.0035 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.400.4 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x19h

Sticker | nitr0 (Gold) | Berlin 2019sticker · #EB4B4B$35.0035 CSGOBIG_COIN$7.657.65 CSGOBIG_COIN0.22x19h

Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #B0C3D9$35.0035 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.780.78 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x19h

Sealed Graffiti | Take Flight (Dust Brown)graffiti · #B0C3D9$35.0035 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.030.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x1d

★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Stained (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$35.0035 CSGOBIG_COIN$140140 CSGOBIG_COIN4.00x1d

P250 | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$35.0035 CSGOBIG_COIN$6.606.6 CSGOBIG_COIN0.19x1d

Sticker | nitr0 (Gold) | Berlin 2019sticker · #EB4B4Bilovebigspins$35.0035 CSGOBIG_COIN$7.657.65 CSGOBIG_COIN0.22x1d

Sticker | TYLOO (Holo) | 2020 RMRsticker · #8847FF$35.0035 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.220.22 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x2d

Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #B0C3D9$35.0035 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.780.78 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x2d

UMP-45 | Facility Dark (Well-Worn)weapon · #B0C3D9$35.0035 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.040.04 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$35.00	90.00%	20

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed3 5.1%#ffd700 0.1%covert 0.1%legendary 0.1%sunny 0.1%gold 9.5%covert knife 4.4%#EB4B4B 7.3%#4b69ff 14.7%milspec 11.0%#B0C3D9 38.1%Consumer Grade 2.2%#8847FF 6.6%high 0.7%best hit —