Lilypad
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$50.00
50 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $45.00 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.18%
45 openings, odds method
Variance
16.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 45 openings and 2.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 45 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $1,795 1,795 CSGOBIG_COIN | 39.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| AUG | Midnight Lily (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 25 | $500 500 CSGOBIG_COIN | 44.4% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.67× |
| UMP-45 | Day Lily (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 1 in 20 | $65.00 65 CSGOBIG_COIN | 7.2% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.89× |
| P90 | Sunset Lily (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 15.0% | $17.03 17.03 CSGOBIG_COIN | 5.7% | 7 | 6.8 | 1.04× |
| M4A4 | Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted | 75.0% | $1.66 1.66 CSGOBIG_COIN | 2.8% | 33 | 33.8 | 0.98× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=144, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
M4A4 | Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$50.0050 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.661.66 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x
M4A4 | Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$50.0050 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.661.66 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x
M4A4 | Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$50.0050 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.661.66 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x
M4A4 | Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$50.0050 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.661.66 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x
P90 | Sunset Lily (Factory New)weapon · industrial$50.0050 CSGOBIG_COIN$17.0317.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.34x
M4A4 | Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedRassel$50.0050 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.661.66 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x
M4A4 | Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$50.0050 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.661.66 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x
M4A4 | Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$50.0050 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.661.66 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $50.00 | 90.00% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 1.0%restricted 79.0%Rare 5.0%industrial 15.0%best hit $500 (10.00x)