The Serpent

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$38.00

38 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $34.20 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d

216.27%

72 openings, odds method

Variance

74.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 125

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

98.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

11 openings · below min

7 days

51 openings · below min

30 days

72 openings · below min

since tracking started

72 openings · below min

-0.5%271.8%544.0%

Small sample. 72 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	11	31.76%±511.5	—	odds
7d	51	207.71%±237.5	—	odds
30d	72	216.27%±199.9	—	odds
All	72	216.27%±199.9	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 72 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 333	$5,555 5,555 CSGOBIG_COIN	48.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 200	$1,800 1,800 CSGOBIG_COIN	26.3%	3	0.4	—
AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 167	$260 260 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.6%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 26	$33.50 33.5 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.8%	3	2.8	1.08×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 77	$31.19 31.19 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.2%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 12	$29.00 29 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.1%	7	6.0	1.16×
AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	10.9%	$12.44 12.44 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.0%	8	7.9	1.02×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 11	$10.14 10.14 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.7%	8	6.5	1.23×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 39	$6.27 6.27 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.5%	1	1.9	0.54×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #D32CE6	1 in 17	$3.49 3.49 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.6%	3	4.2	0.72×
P90 \| Desert Warfare (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 51	$1.11 1.11 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	2	1.4	1.43×
R8 Revolver \| Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 31	$1.09 1.09 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	0	2.3	0.00×
Souvenir Galil AR \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 16	$0.96 0.96 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	8	4.6	1.72×
MP5-SD \| Agent (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$0.63 0.63 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	6	5.1	1.18×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Foresight (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 152	$0.39 0.39 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	0	0.5	—
Sticker \| Hello MP9sticker · #4B69FF	1 in 10	$0.17 0.17 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	5	7.0	0.72×
G3SG1 \| Orange Crash (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 22	$0.15 0.15 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	3	3.3	0.92×
Souvenir MAC-10 \| Strats (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9	10.3%	$0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	10	7.4	1.35×
Sticker \| sjuush (Glitter) \| Rio 2022sticker · #8847FF	1 in 19	$0.05 0.05 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	1	3.7	0.27×
Sealed Graffiti \| Piggles (Dust Brown)graffiti · #B0C3D9	1 in 13	$0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	4	5.6	0.72×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=15, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$38.0038 CSGOBIG_COIN$1,8001,800 CSGOBIG_COIN47.37x5d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$38.0038 CSGOBIG_COIN$1,8001,800 CSGOBIG_COIN47.37x6d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$38.0038 CSGOBIG_COIN$1,8001,800 CSGOBIG_COIN47.37x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ P2000 | Fire Elemental (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert$38.0038 CSGOBIG_COIN$29.0029 CSGOBIG_COIN0.76x11h

Sticker | sjuush (Glitter) | Rio 2022sticker · #8847FF$38.0038 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.050.05 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x11h

StatTrak™ P2000 | Fire Elemental (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert$38.0038 CSGOBIG_COIN$29.0029 CSGOBIG_COIN0.76x18h

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | The Executioner (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #D32CE6$38.0038 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.493.49 CSGOBIG_COIN0.09x18h

AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$38.0038 CSGOBIG_COIN$12.4412.44 CSGOBIG_COIN0.33x18h

P90 | Desert Warfare (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$38.0038 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.111.11 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x18h

Souvenir Galil AR | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$38.0038 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.960.96 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x18h

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · AncientDick to small to Fit$38.0038 CSGOBIG_COIN$10.1410.14 CSGOBIG_COIN0.27x18h

AWP | Man-o'-war (Field-Tested)weapon · covertDick to small to Fit$38.0038 CSGOBIG_COIN$33.5033.5 CSGOBIG_COIN0.88x18h

MP5-SD | Agent (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$38.0038 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.630.63 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x18h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$38.00	90.00%	20

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.3%covert 14.0%mil spec 3.8%classified 13.5%Ancient 9.0%#D32CE6 5.8%milspec 2.6%Mil Spec Grade 6.4%restricted 7.1%#4B69FF 9.7%#4b69ff 4.5%#B0C3D9 18.0%#8847FF 5.2%best hit $1,800 (47.37x)