The Decapitator
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$25.00
25 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $22.50 from 20 items
Observed RTP, 30d
21.07%
7 openings, odds method
Variance
7.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 7 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=16, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary$25.0025 CSGOBIG_COIN$11.3511.35 CSGOBIG_COIN0.45x
StatTrak™ Music Kit | The Verkkars, EZ4ENCEmusic kit · high$25.0025 CSGOBIG_COIN$8.588.58 CSGOBIG_COIN0.34x
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Withered Vine (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$25.0025 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.180.18 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x
Desert Eagle | Sputnik (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue$25.0025 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.520.52 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Withered Vine (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$25.0025 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.180.18 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Hexane (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF$25.0025 CSGOBIG_COIN$15.8815.88 CSGOBIG_COIN0.64x
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Withered Vine (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$25.0025 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.180.18 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $25.00 | 90.00% | 20 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.9%extraordinary 0.1%covert knife 2.5%#4B69FF 15.0%#8847FF 11.6%Legendary 10.0%high 9.1%#EB4B4B 10.8%#d32ee6 3.3%blue 5.0%industrial 12.5%milspec 8.3%#B0C3D9 0.8%best hit —