20% Mystic Menagerie
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1,198.00
1,198 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $1,078.22 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.93%
5 openings, odds method
Variance
10.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 27
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 5 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=170, 11 Nov, 12:47 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1,198 | 90.00% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.7%extraordinary 1.5%contraband 1.8%covert 16.0%Rare 80.0%best hit $2,843 (2.37x)