30% Blaze
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$189.00
189 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $170.10 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
—
no counted openings
Variance
2.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare | 25.0% | $656 656 CSGOBIG_COIN | 96.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Nova | Blaze Orange (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 40 | $205 205 CSGOBIG_COIN | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Souvenir UMP-45 | Blaze (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 40 | $30.00 30 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Sealed Graffiti | Thoughtfull (Tracer Yellow)graffiti · #B0C3D9 | 23.3% | $0.78 0.78 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Sealed Graffiti | 200 IQ (Tiger Orange)graffiti · Base Grade | 12.7% | $0.22 0.22 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Sticker | yuurih | Rio 2022sticker · #4B69FF | 33.9% | $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=175, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
No history yet
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $189 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrare 25.0%mil spec 2.5%Mil Spec Grade 2.5%#B0C3D9 23.3%Base Grade 12.7%#4B69FF 33.9%