30% Case Hardened
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$761.00
761 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $684.92 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
—
no counted openings
Variance
69.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
22.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Field Tested) - Pattern 387knife · #EB4B4B | 1 in 1,000 | $200K 200,000 CSGOBIG_COIN | 29.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B | 1 in 50 | $2,055 2,055 CSGOBIG_COIN | 6.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 20.0% | $1,781 1,781 CSGOBIG_COIN | 52.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B | 1 in 50 | $1,438 1,438 CSGOBIG_COIN | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B | 1 in 53 | $1,050 1,050 CSGOBIG_COIN | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B | 1 in 50 | $959 959 CSGOBIG_COIN | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B | 1 in 50 | $958 958 CSGOBIG_COIN | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Patch | Mad Sushipatch · #4B69FF | 70.0% | $0.81 0.81 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=176, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
No history yet
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $761 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#EB4B4B 10.0%covert 20.0%#4B69FF 70.0%