5% Wizard's Wonder
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$486.00
486 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $437.39 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.60%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
23.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 67
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=180, 11 Nov, 12:47 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$486486 CSGOBIG_COIN$4,8654,865 CSGOBIG_COIN10.01x
Latest dropsnewest first
Nova | Sand Dune (Factory New)weapon · consumertinyguy$486486 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.970.97 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$486486 CSGOBIG_COIN$4,8654,865 CSGOBIG_COIN10.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $486 | 90.00% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedbase 0.3%covert 1.3%Covert 0.3%extraordinary 3.3%consumer 95.0%best hit $4,865 (10.01x)