Elixir Essence
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$500.00
500 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $450.00 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
0.43%
2 openings, odds method
Variance
37.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 48
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 2 openings and 0.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=184, 11 Nov, 12:47 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir MP5-SD | Dirt Drop (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9$500500 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.050.05 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified$500500 CSGOBIG_COIN$4.254.25 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $500 | 90.00% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.1%#EB4B4B 0.3%covert 27.9%extraordinary 1.0%covert knife 8.2%classified 19.0%exotic 21.8%#B0C3D9 21.8%best hit —