Sticky Goblin
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$800.00
800 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $720.00 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
32.52%
9 openings, odds method
Variance
34.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 65
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 9 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=186, 11 Nov, 12:47 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4B$800800 CSGOBIG_COIN$1,7401,740 CSGOBIG_COIN2.18x
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $800 | 90.00% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.7%remarkable 0.1%extraordinary 0.8%covert 9.0%#EB4B4B 41.4%#F2F8FF 21.8%restricted 19.6%#8847ff 6.6%best hit $1,740 (2.18x)