Wandmakers Workshop
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$380.00
380 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $342.00 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
132.85%
2 openings, odds method
Variance
19.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 2 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=187, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$380380 CSGOBIG_COIN$1,0001,000 CSGOBIG_COIN2.63x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$380380 CSGOBIG_COIN$1,0001,000 CSGOBIG_COIN2.63x
StatTrak™ USP-S | Guardian (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical$380380 CSGOBIG_COIN$9.649.64 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $380 | 90.00% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.1%contraband 0.5%covert 20.7%covert knife 10.9%Mythical 21.7%pink 19.0%#8847ff 5.4%grey 8.1%consumer 13.6%best hit $1,000 (2.63x)