The Pioneer
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$35.00
35 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $31.50 from 20 items
Observed RTP, 30d
365.43%
3 openings, odds method
Variance
13.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 19
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 3 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=19, 12 Nov, 14:18 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Guardian (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified$35.0035 CSGOBIG_COIN$41.1341.13 CSGOBIG_COIN1.18x
AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New)weapon · covertMexi$35.0035 CSGOBIG_COIN$52.1352.13 CSGOBIG_COIN1.49x
★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$35.0035 CSGOBIG_COIN$290290 CSGOBIG_COIN8.30x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $35.00 | 90.00% | 20 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 9.6%extraordinary 5.2%#ffd700 0.1%classified 11.0%industrial 5.9%mil spec 18.4%Mil Spec Grade 10.3%restricted 16.2%Rare 16.2%milspec 1.5%#4B69FF 2.9%blue 2.2%#B0C3D9 0.7%best hit —