Mystical Forest

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$10.00

10 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $9.00 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.01%

28 openings, odds method

Variance

40.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 11

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

5 openings · below min

7 days

28 openings · below min

30 days

28 openings · below min

since tracking started

28 openings · below min

-0.5%326.5%653.5%

Small sample. 28 openings and 2.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	5	99.06%±554.0	—	odds
7d	28	92.01%±234.1	—	odds
30d	28	92.01%±234.1	—	odds
All	28	92.01%±234.1	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 10,000	$6,132 6,132 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 11	$44.14 44.14 CSGOBIG_COIN	44.6%	5	2.5	1.96×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 13	$41.39 41.39 CSGOBIG_COIN	34.8%	0	2.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 65	$20.34 20.34 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.5%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 33	$4.41 4.41 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.5%	0	0.9	—
Sticker \| Seeing Red (Foil)sticker · exotic	15.1%	$3.20 3.2 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.4%	10	4.2	2.36×
PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	12.1%	$1.95 1.95 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.6%	2	3.4	0.59×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Jungle Slipstream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	10.6%	$0.40 0.4 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.5%	0	3.0	0.00×
SCAR-20 \| Jungle Slipstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 1	1 in 22	$0.13 0.13 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	2	1.3	1.57×
PP-Bizon \| Jungle Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	13.6%	$0.11 0.11 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	6	3.8	1.57×
Souvenir SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 16	$0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
Sealed Graffiti \| Sorry (Jungle Green)graffiti · Common	16.7%	$0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	3	4.7	0.64×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=191, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN$44.1444.14 CSGOBIG_COIN4.41x7h

PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Well-Worn)weapon · industrialazi$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.951.95 CSGOBIG_COIN0.20x7h

PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.110.11 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x7h

SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 1$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.130.13 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x7h

Sticker | Seeing Red (Foil)sticker · exotic$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.203.2 CSGOBIG_COIN0.32x7h

PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.110.11 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x2d

Sticker | Seeing Red (Foil)sticker · exoticIceC$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.203.2 CSGOBIG_COIN0.32x2d

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN$44.1444.14 CSGOBIG_COIN4.41x4d

PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffoHypnoticS$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.110.11 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x4d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$10.00	90.00%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 4.6%covert 9.1%Ancient 7.6%#d32ee6 1.5%Restricted 3.0%exotic 15.1%industrial 12.1%milspec 10.6%#4b69ff 13.6%Consumer Grade 6.1%Common 16.7%best hit —