Ancient Ruins

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$15.00

15 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $13.50 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

49.26%

34 openings, odds method

Variance

119.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 16

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

3 openings · below min

7 days

28 openings · below min

30 days

34 openings · below min

since tracking started

34 openings · below min

-0.5%619.3%1239.0%

Small sample. 34 openings and 2.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3	0.87%±1237.6	—	odds
7d	28	36.16%±405.1	—	odds
30d	34	49.26%±367.6	—	odds
All	34	49.26%±367.6	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 34 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$5,156 5,156 CSGOBIG_COIN	38.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Lunar Weave (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 16	$86.36 86.36 CSGOBIG_COIN	38.8%	2	2.1	0.97×
MAC-10 \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 33	$37.91 37.91 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.5%	0	1.0	0.00×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 65	$14.13 14.13 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.6%	0	0.5	—
Souvenir USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · #8847FF	1 in 22	$9.15 9.15 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.1%	2	1.5	1.29×
R8 Revolver \| Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	10.6%	$6.50 6.5 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.1%	6	3.6	1.67×
G3SG1 \| Ancient Ritual (Well-Worn)weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 11	$5.45 5.45 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.7%	3	3.1	0.97×
P90 \| Ancient Earth (Minimal Wear)weapon · gray	12.1%	$0.35 0.35 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	4	4.1	0.97×
AUG \| Amber Fade (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	15.1%	$0.35 0.35 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.4%	6	5.1	1.17×
P90 \| Ancient Earth (Field-Tested)weapon · gray	1 in 13	$0.18 0.18 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	3	2.6	1.17×
Souvenir P90 \| Ancient Earth (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Common	13.6%	$0.11 0.11 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	4	4.6	0.86×
Sticker \| Ancient Protectorsticker · High Grade	16.6%	$0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	4	5.7	0.71×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=194, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Souvenir P90 | Ancient Earth (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Common$15.0015 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.110.11 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x56m

P90 | Ancient Earth (Field-Tested)weapon · gray$15.0015 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.180.18 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x56m

Sticker | Ancient Protectorsticker · High Grade$15.0015 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.100.1 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x56m

R8 Revolver | Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$15.0015 CSGOBIG_COIN$6.506.5 CSGOBIG_COIN0.43x2d

AUG | Amber Fade (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec$15.0015 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.350.35 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x2d

Souvenir P90 | Ancient Earth (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Common$15.0015 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.110.11 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x2d

P90 | Ancient Earth (Minimal Wear)weapon · grayGameHunter$15.0015 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.350.35 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x2d

G3SG1 | Ancient Ritual (Well-Worn)weapon · Industrial Grade$15.0015 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.455.45 CSGOBIG_COIN0.36x2d

P90 | Ancient Earth (Minimal Wear)weapon · gray$15.0015 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.350.35 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x2d

Sticker | Ancient Protectorsticker · High Grade$15.0015 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.100.1 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$15.00	90.00%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 12.2%extraordinary 6.1%Mil Spec Grade 3.0%#8847FF 4.6%Industrial Grade 9.1%gray 19.7%milspec 15.1%Common 13.6%High Grade 16.6%best hit —