Pirate's Plunder

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$20.00

20 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $18.00 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

59.83%

23 openings, odds method

Variance

11.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

14.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

6 openings · below min

7 days

16 openings · below min

30 days

23 openings · below min

since tracking started

23 openings · below min

-0.5%159.0%318.5%

Small sample. 23 openings and 3.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6	48.70%±269.2	—	odds
7d	16	68.42%±164.8	—	odds
30d	23	59.83%±137.5	—	odds
All	23	59.83%±137.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 23 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 100	$683 683 CSGOBIG_COIN	37.9%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted	13.3%	$27.72 27.72 CSGOBIG_COIN	20.5%	3	3.1	0.98×
Souvenir USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · #8847FF	14.8%	$15.30 15.3 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.5%	2	3.4	0.59×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$14.34 14.34 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.2%	4	2.1	1.93×
Tec-9 \| Rust Leaf (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 16	$13.00 13 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.4%	3	1.4	2.13×
Souvenir Sawed-Off \| Rust Coat (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · #5E98D9	1 in 13	$7.34 7.34 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.1%	3	1.7	1.73×
Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	10.4%	$6.59 6.59 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.8%	3	2.4	1.25×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	16.2%	$6.45 6.45 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.8%	3	3.7	0.81×
Souvenir MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	11.9%	$5.85 5.85 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.9%	0	2.7	0.00×
Stockholm 2021 Ancient Souvenir Packagecontainer · #B0C3D9	1 in 31	$3.35 3.35 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.6%	1	0.7	—
Souvenir MAG-7 \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 55	$0.78 0.78 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	0	0.4	—
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 21	$0.63 0.63 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	1	1.1	0.93×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=197, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$20.0020 CSGOBIG_COIN$6.456.45 CSGOBIG_COIN0.32x18h

Tec-9 | Rust Leaf (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial$20.0020 CSGOBIG_COIN$13.0013 CSGOBIG_COIN0.65x18h

Souvenir Sawed-Off | Rust Coat (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · #5E98D9$20.0020 CSGOBIG_COIN$7.347.34 CSGOBIG_COIN0.37x18h

Stockholm 2021 Ancient Souvenir Packagecontainer · #B0C3D9$20.0020 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.353.35 CSGOBIG_COIN0.17x18h

Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · #8847FF$20.0020 CSGOBIG_COIN$15.3015.3 CSGOBIG_COIN0.77x18h

Tec-9 | Rust Leaf (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrialCalculated$20.0020 CSGOBIG_COIN$13.0013 CSGOBIG_COIN0.65x18h

USP-S | Ancient Visions (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted$20.0020 CSGOBIG_COIN$27.7227.72 CSGOBIG_COIN1.39x1d

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$20.0020 CSGOBIG_COIN$14.3414.34 CSGOBIG_COIN0.72x1d

Souvenir Sawed-Off | Rust Coat (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · #5E98D9$20.0020 CSGOBIG_COIN$7.347.34 CSGOBIG_COIN0.37x1d

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$20.0020 CSGOBIG_COIN$6.456.45 CSGOBIG_COIN0.32x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$20.00	90.00%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.0%Restricted 13.3%#8847FF 14.8%restricted 47.5%industrial 6.1%#5E98D9 7.6%#B0C3D9 3.2%Consumer Grade 1.8%#4b69ff 4.7%best hit —