Budget 10% Knife

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$18.00

18 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $16.20 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d

184.67%

26 openings, odds method

Variance

5.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

10.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

2 openings · below min

7 days

25 openings · below min

30 days

26 openings · below min

since tracking started

26 openings · below min

-0.5%190.8%382.0%

Small sample. 26 openings and 2.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2	59.11%±322.4	—	odds
7d	25	191.70%±91.2	—	odds
30d	26	184.67%±89.4	—	odds
All	26	184.67%±89.4	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 26 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,700 1,700 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 10	$130 130 CSGOBIG_COIN	80.2%	6	2.6	2.31×
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 11	$19.45 19.45 CSGOBIG_COIN	10.7%	3	2.3	1.29×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Flashback (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 185	$16.02 16.02 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.5%	0	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Anodized Gunmetal (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 63	$5.55 5.55 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.5%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF	1 in 17	$4.66 4.66 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.7%	1	1.5	0.66×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 27	$3.40 3.4 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.8%	1	1.0	—
Sticker \| Hard Cluck Life (Foil)sticker · #D32CE6	1 in 16	$2.28 2.28 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.9%	0	1.6	0.00×
Sticker \| Free Hugs (Holo)sticker · Mythical	1 in 11	$1.83 1.83 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.1%	3	2.5	1.22×
MP9 \| Airlock (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 15	$1.82 1.82 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.8%	1	1.8	0.56×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 14	$1.59 1.59 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.7%	1	1.9	0.52×
G3SG1 \| Stinger (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 94	$1.46 1.46 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	1	0.3	—
Sticker \| Queen Of Painsticker · Rare	1 in 32	$1.42 1.42 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	4	0.8	—
Souvenir Negev \| Bulkhead (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · #5E98D9	1 in 21	$0.99 0.99 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	1	1.2	0.81×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$0.61 0.61 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	1	2.1	0.49×
M249 \| O.S.I.P.R. (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 38	$0.23 0.23 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	0	0.7	—
Sticker \| nafany (Glitter) \| Antwerp 2022sticker · #8847FF	1 in 12	$0.14 0.14 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	1	2.2	0.46×
Sealed Graffiti \| Rage Mode (Brick Red)graffiti · #B0C3D9	1 in 47	$0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	0	0.5	—
Sealed Graffiti \| Noscope (Blood Red)graffiti · #B0C3D9	1 in 24	$0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	2	1.1	1.83×
Sticker \| aliStair \| Antwerp 2022sticker · #4B69FF	1 in 19	$0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	0	1.4	0.00×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=2, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$18.0018 CSGOBIG_COIN$19.4519.45 CSGOBIG_COIN1.08x9h

Sticker | Free Hugs (Holo)sticker · Mythical$18.0018 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.831.83 CSGOBIG_COIN0.10x9h

Sticker | Queen Of Painsticker · Rare$18.0018 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.421.42 CSGOBIG_COIN0.08x2d

Sticker | Free Hugs (Holo)sticker · Mythical$18.0018 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.831.83 CSGOBIG_COIN0.10x2d

Souvenir Negev | Bulkhead (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · #5E98D9$18.0018 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.990.99 CSGOBIG_COIN0.06x2d

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$18.0018 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.610.61 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x2d

Sticker | Queen Of Painsticker · Rare$18.0018 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.421.42 CSGOBIG_COIN0.08x2d

Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedOddball$18.0018 CSGOBIG_COIN$19.4519.45 CSGOBIG_COIN1.08x2d

MP9 | Airlock (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6$18.0018 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.821.82 CSGOBIG_COIN0.10x2d

★ Falchion Knife | Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · gold$18.0018 CSGOBIG_COIN$130130 CSGOBIG_COIN7.22x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$18.00	90.00%	20

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%gold 10.0%classified 12.6%restricted 8.4%Common 1.6%#8847FF 14.2%#D32CE6 6.3%Mythical 9.5%#d32ee6 6.8%violet 8.4%Rare 3.2%#5E98D9 4.7%#4b69ff 2.6%#B0C3D9 6.3%#4B69FF 5.3%best hit —