Price
$25.00
25 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $22.50 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.24%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
57.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 200
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=200, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
M4A4 | Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$25.0025 CSGOBIG_COIN$10.4710.47 CSGOBIG_COIN0.42x
StatTrak™ MP9 | Dart (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$25.0025 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.921.92 CSGOBIG_COIN0.08x
StatTrak™ MP9 | Dart (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec GradePixelated$25.0025 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.921.92 CSGOBIG_COIN0.08x
Sticker | aliStair (Glitter) | Antwerp 2022sticker · #8847FF$25.0025 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.080.08 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Sticker | aliStair (Glitter) | Antwerp 2022sticker · #8847FF$25.0025 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.080.08 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Sticker | denis (Foil) | Boston 2018sticker · #8847FFkisu$25.0025 CSGOBIG_COIN$10.5010.5 CSGOBIG_COIN0.42x
M4A4 | Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$25.0025 CSGOBIG_COIN$10.4710.47 CSGOBIG_COIN0.42x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $25.00 | 89.99% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.5%covert knife 1.5%#EB4B4B 4.5%#8847FF 15.1%classified 13.6%restricted 7.5%Exotic 12.1%Mil Spec Grade 16.6%#4B69FF 13.6%#F2F8FF 15.1%best hit —