Hoops Havoc

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$25.00

25 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

89.97%

EV $22.49 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

32.73%

53 openings, odds method

Variance

109.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 333

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

4 openings · below min

7 days

36 openings · below min

30 days

53 openings · below min

since tracking started

53 openings · below min

-0.5%529.8%1060.0%

Small sample. 53 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	4	32.69%±1026.7	—	odds
7d	36	33.50%±342.2	—	odds
30d	53	32.73%±282.1	—	odds
All	53	32.73%±282.1	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 53 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 333	$4,784 4,784 CSGOBIG_COIN	63.8%	0	0.2	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 66	$106 106 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.2%	0	0.8	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 33	$86.54 86.54 CSGOBIG_COIN	11.6%	2	1.6	1.25×
Souvenir AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$22.81 22.81 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.2%	8	4.8	1.67×
Sticker \| Golden (Foil) \| Boston 2018sticker · remarkable	16.6%	$5.00 5 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.7%	9	8.8	1.02×
Sticker \| fitch (Foil) \| Katowice 2019sticker · #8847FF	10.6%	$3.18 3.18 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.5%	2	5.6	0.36×
Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 22	$3.15 3.15 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.6%	2	2.4	0.83×
Sticker \| Techno4K (Holo) \| Paris 2023sticker · #F2F8FF	15.1%	$1.73 1.73 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.2%	6	8.0	0.75×
Sticker \| Renegades (Holo) \| Katowice 2019sticker · Mythical	13.6%	$1.37 1.37 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.8%	4	7.2	0.56×
G3SG1 \| Keeping Tabs (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 17	$1.25 1.25 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	3	3.2	0.94×
Sticker \| SunPayus (Glitter) \| Rio 2022sticker · #8847FF	12.1%	$0.05 0.05 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	12	6.4	1.87×
Sealed Graffiti \| Loser (Battle Green)graffiti · Base Grade	1 in 13	$0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	5	4.0	1.25×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=201, 12 Nov, 01:41 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Souvenir AK-47 | Safety Net (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$25.0025 CSGOBIG_COIN$22.8122.81 CSGOBIG_COIN0.91x16h

Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$25.0025 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.153.15 CSGOBIG_COIN0.13x16h

Sticker | Golden (Foil) | Boston 2018sticker · remarkable$25.0025 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN0.20x16h

Sticker | Techno4K (Holo) | Paris 2023sticker · #F2F8FF$25.0025 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.731.73 CSGOBIG_COIN0.07x21h

★ Shadow Daggers | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$25.0025 CSGOBIG_COIN$86.5486.54 CSGOBIG_COIN3.46x1d

Sealed Graffiti | Loser (Battle Green)graffiti · Base Grade$25.0025 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.040.04 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x1d

Sticker | SunPayus (Glitter) | Rio 2022sticker · #8847FF$25.0025 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.050.05 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x3d

Sticker | Golden (Foil) | Boston 2018sticker · remarkable$25.0025 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN0.20x3d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$25.00	89.97%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 3.3%covert knife 1.5%restricted 9.1%remarkable 16.6%#8847FF 22.7%classified 4.5%#F2F8FF 15.1%Mythical 13.6%Mil Spec 6.0%Base Grade 7.6%best hit —