Neon Noir

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$75.00

75 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $67.50 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

40.18%

42 openings, odds method

Variance

73.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 200

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

98.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

1 openings · below min

7 days

23 openings · below min

30 days

42 openings · below min

since tracking started

42 openings · below min

-0.5%839.0%1678.5%

Small sample. 42 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1	0.11%±1677.5	—	odds
7d	23	70.81%±349.8	—	odds
30d	42	40.18%±258.8	—	odds
All	42	40.18%±258.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 42 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| keshandr (Gold) \| Krakow 2017sticker · #EB4B4B	1 in 200	$8,928 8,928 CSGOBIG_COIN	66.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Night (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 66	$1,089 1,089 CSGOBIG_COIN	24.3%	1	0.6	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 11	$43.22 43.22 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.8%	2	3.8	0.53×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 22	$13.73 13.73 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.9%	2	1.9	1.05×
R8 Revolver \| Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 17	$6.50 6.5 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.6%	0	2.5	0.00×
P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 13	$4.23 4.23 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.5%	4	3.2	1.26×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	13.6%	$2.69 2.69 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.5%	4	5.7	0.70×
Five-SeveN \| Nightshade (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	10.6%	$2.49 2.49 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.4%	2	4.4	0.45×
MP7 \| Neon Ply (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	15.1%	$2.09 2.09 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.5%	11	6.3	1.74×
R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	12.1%	$1.94 1.94 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	3	5.1	0.59×
Souvenir M249 \| Midnight Palm (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · #5E98D9	16.6%	$0.08 0.08 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	11	7.0	1.58×
Souvenir CZ75-Auto \| Midnight Palm (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 33	$0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	2	1.3	1.58×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=209, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Night (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife$75.0075 CSGOBIG_COIN$1,0891,089 CSGOBIG_COIN14.52x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Souvenir M249 | Midnight Palm (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · #5E98D9$75.0075 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.080.08 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x9h

★ Karambit | Night (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife$75.0075 CSGOBIG_COIN$1,0891,089 CSGOBIG_COIN14.52x2d

Souvenir M249 | Midnight Palm (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · #5E98D9$75.0075 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.080.08 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x2d

AWP | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covertCryder$75.0075 CSGOBIG_COIN$43.2243.22 CSGOBIG_COIN0.58x2d

Souvenir M249 | Midnight Palm (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · #5E98D9$75.0075 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.080.08 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x2d

M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff$75.0075 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.692.69 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x2d

P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$75.0075 CSGOBIG_COIN$4.234.23 CSGOBIG_COIN0.06x3d

M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff$75.0075 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.692.69 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x3d

MP7 | Neon Ply (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedBeams vi Germania$75.0075 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.092.09 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x3d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$75.00	90.00%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed#EB4B4B 0.5%covert knife 1.5%covert 19.6%classified 19.6%#8847ff 13.6%milspec 10.6%restricted 15.1%#5E98D9 16.6%Industrial Grade 3.0%best hit $1,089 (14.52x)