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1% Lore Dream

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price
$80.00
80 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $72.00 from 20 items
Observed RTP, 30d
6.68%
31 openings, odds method
Variance
54.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
98.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
4 openings · below min
7 days
31 openings · below min
30 days
31 openings · below min
since tracking started
31 openings · below min
-0.5%373.3%747.0%

Small sample. 31 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h425.79%±720.4—odds
7d316.68%±258.8—odds
30d316.68%±258.8—odds
All316.68%±258.8—odds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 31 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 100$5,888 5,888 CSGOBIG_COIN81.8%00.3—
★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold1 in 96$629 629 CSGOBIG_COIN9.1%00.3—
USP-S | Orange Anolis (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 11$40.47 40.47 CSGOBIG_COIN5.3%32.91.03×
AK-47 | Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec1 in 64$29.63 29.63 CSGOBIG_COIN0.6%00.5—
StatTrak™ XM1014 | XOXO (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 48$22.42 22.42 CSGOBIG_COIN0.6%10.6—
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Hard Water (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 11$10.07 10.07 CSGOBIG_COIN1.2%02.70.00×
SG 553 | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 15$4.96 4.96 CSGOBIG_COIN0.5%22.10.95×
StatTrak™ USP-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 17$4.40 4.4 CSGOBIG_COIN0.4%11.80.56×
R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 13$2.40 2.4 CSGOBIG_COIN0.3%02.40.00×
Sealed Graffiti | Smarmy (Frog Green)graffiti · #B0C3D91 in 24$1.27 1.27 CSGOBIG_COIN0.1%21.31.55×
Gamma 2 Casecontainer · #B0C3D91 in 192$1.05 1.05 CSGOBIG_COIN0.0%10.2—
StatTrak™ M249 | Warbird (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF1 in 32$0.58 0.58 CSGOBIG_COIN0.0%01.0—
Sticker | Liquid (Foil) | 2020 RMRsticker · #D32CE61 in 38$0.56 0.56 CSGOBIG_COIN0.0%20.8—
Sealed Graffiti | Bananagraffiti · #4B69FF1 in 27$0.56 0.56 CSGOBIG_COIN0.0%01.10.00×
Souvenir MP5-SD | Lab Rats (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted1 in 10$0.33 0.33 CSGOBIG_COIN0.0%63.11.96×
AUG | Surveillance (Factory New)weapon · grey1 in 19$0.20 0.2 CSGOBIG_COIN0.0%11.60.62×
Sealed Graffiti | 1G (SWAT Blue)graffiti · #B0C3D91 in 14$0.18 0.18 CSGOBIG_COIN0.0%22.30.88×
MP5-SD | Dirt Drop (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #B0C3D91 in 21$0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.0%11.50.69×
Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer1 in 16$0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.0%41.92.06×
Sticker | gxx- | Rio 2022sticker · #4B69FF1 in 12$0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.0%52.61.93×
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=21, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Souvenir MP5-SD | Lab Rats (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted$80.0080 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.330.33 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
USP-S | Orange Anolis (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$80.0080 CSGOBIG_COIN$40.4740.47 CSGOBIG_COIN0.51x
Sealed Graffiti | Smarmy (Frog Green)graffiti · #B0C3D9$80.0080 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.271.27 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x
USP-S | Orange Anolis (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$80.0080 CSGOBIG_COIN$40.4740.47 CSGOBIG_COIN0.51x
Sticker | Liquid (Foil) | 2020 RMRsticker · #D32CE6$80.0080 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.560.56 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x
SG 553 | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial$80.0080 CSGOBIG_COIN$4.964.96 CSGOBIG_COIN0.06x
Sealed Graffiti | Smarmy (Frog Green)graffiti · #B0C3D9$80.0080 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.271.27 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x
Sticker | Liquid (Foil) | 2020 RMRsticker · #D32CE6$80.0080 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.560.56 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x
Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerwaterland$80.0080 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.030.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Souvenir MP5-SD | Lab Rats (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted$80.0080 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.330.33 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$80.0090.00%20
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.0%gold 1.0%restricted 9.4%mil spec 7.3%classified 9.9%Mil Spec Grade 8.9%industrial 6.8%#B0C3D9 16.7%#4B69FF 15.1%#D32CE6 2.6%Restricted 9.9%grey 5.2%consumer 6.3%best hit —