Arctic Expedition
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$100.00
100 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $90.00 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
78.54%
27 openings, odds method
Variance
39.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 27 openings and 1.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 27 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=210, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir M249 | Midnight Palm (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #5E98D9$100100 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.080.08 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Souvenir M249 | Midnight Palm (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #5E98D9$100100 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.080.08 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Souvenir CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$100100 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.090.09 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified$100100 CSGOBIG_COIN$60.1860.18 CSGOBIG_COIN0.60x
Souvenir CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$100100 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.090.09 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Souvenir M249 | Midnight Palm (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #5E98D9wankywobbles$100100 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.080.08 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
M249 | Midnight Palm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5E98D9$100100 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.162.16 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x
M249 | Midnight Palm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5E98D9$100100 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.162.16 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · Covert$100100 CSGOBIG_COIN$457457 CSGOBIG_COIN4.57x
Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified$100100 CSGOBIG_COIN$60.1860.18 CSGOBIG_COIN0.60x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $100 | 90.00% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#EB4B4B 0.5%Covert 4.5%covert knife 9.0%classified 9.0%Base Grade 3.0%#5E98D9 28.6%milspec 10.6%Rare 6.0%mil spec 12.1%industrial 16.6%best hit —