Aerial Aviators

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$350.00

350 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $314.99 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

12.49%

8 openings, odds method

Variance

13.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 50

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

86.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

2 openings · below min

7 days

8 openings · below min

30 days

8 openings · below min

since tracking started

8 openings · below min

-0.5%260.5%521.5%

Small sample. 8 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2	16.15%±504.7	—	odds
7d	8	12.49%±252.3	—	odds
30d	8	12.49%±252.3	—	odds
All	8	12.49%±252.3	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$8,949 8,949 CSGOBIG_COIN	56.8%	0	0.2	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 11	$1,042 1,042 CSGOBIG_COIN	29.5%	0	0.7	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 34	$890 890 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.4%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	13.4%	$110 110 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.7%	3	1.1	2.81×
XM1014 \| Tranquility (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	16.3%	$6.66 6.66 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	1	1.3	0.77×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 22	$4.37 4.37 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	0	0.4	—
Sticker \| Jame (Holo) \| Antwerp 2022sticker · #D32CE6	1 in 13	$3.45 3.45 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	3	0.6	—
Sticker \| k0nfig (Foil) \| London 2018sticker · #8847FF	10.4%	$3.16 3.16 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	1	0.8	—
Sticker \| The Baitersticker · #4b69ff	1 in 17	$0.89 0.89 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	0	0.5	—
Sticker \| sjuush (Holo) \| Antwerp 2022sticker · #D32CE6	1 in 67	$0.55 0.55 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Souvenir P250 \| Exchanger (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF	11.9%	$0.52 0.52 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	0	1.0	—
M249 \| Gator Mesh (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Industrial	14.8%	$0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	0	1.2	0.00×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=214, 11 Nov, 12:47 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | k0nfig (Foil) | London 2018sticker · #8847FF$350350 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.163.16 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x21h

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$350350 CSGOBIG_COIN$110110 CSGOBIG_COIN0.31x21h

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$350350 CSGOBIG_COIN$110110 CSGOBIG_COIN0.31x5d

Sticker | Jame (Holo) | Antwerp 2022sticker · #D32CE6$350350 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.453.45 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x5d

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knifebirb$350350 CSGOBIG_COIN$110110 CSGOBIG_COIN0.31x5d

XM1014 | Tranquility (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6$350350 CSGOBIG_COIN$6.666.66 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x5d

Sticker | Jame (Holo) | Antwerp 2022sticker · #D32CE6$350350 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.453.45 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x5d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$350	90.00%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 5.0%extraordinary 8.9%covert knife 13.4%#d32ee6 16.3%red 4.5%#D32CE6 8.9%#8847FF 10.4%#4b69ff 5.9%#4B69FF 11.9%Industrial 14.8%best hit —