Fantasy Forge
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$450.00
450 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $405.00 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
10.93%
3 openings, odds method
Variance
14.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 3 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=217, 11 Nov, 12:47 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir AUG | Carved Jade (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$450450 CSGOBIG_COIN$4.764.76 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x
StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$450450 CSGOBIG_COIN$71.4171.41 CSGOBIG_COIN0.16x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $450 | 90.00% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 2.0%Covert 14.9%covert knife 4.5%classified 10.4%covert 23.7%mil spec 29.7%industrial 11.9%#B0C3D9 3.0%best hit —