Minimalist Marvel

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$3.00

3 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

89.71%

EV $2.69 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

34.90%

36 openings, odds method

Variance

220.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 65

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

8 openings · below min

7 days

32 openings · below min

30 days

36 openings · below min

since tracking started

36 openings · below min

-0.5%525.3%1051.0%

Small sample. 36 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	8	21.63%±1028.6	—	odds
7d	32	33.73%±514.3	—	odds
30d	36	34.90%±484.9	—	odds
All	36	34.90%±484.9	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 36 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary	1 in 10,000	$4,360 4,360 CSGOBIG_COIN	16.2%	0	0.0	—
CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 66	$75.48 75.48 CSGOBIG_COIN	42.6%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Justice (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 13	$4.24 4.24 CSGOBIG_COIN	11.9%	0	2.7	0.00×
Souvenir MP5-SD \| Dirt Drop (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade	10.6%	$2.58 2.58 CSGOBIG_COIN	10.2%	7	3.8	1.83×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	13.6%	$1.34 1.34 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.8%	3	4.9	0.61×
Nova \| Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	15.1%	$1.18 1.18 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.6%	9	5.5	1.65×
Sticker \| Fade Lethalsticker · high	1 in 33	$0.45 0.45 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.5%	2	1.1	1.83×
Souvenir P90 \| Ancient Earth (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9	1 in 11	$0.44 0.44 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.5%	5	3.3	1.53×
PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 22	$0.37 0.37 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.6%	0	1.6	0.00×
Sticker \| olofmeister \| London 2018sticker · #4B69FF	16.7%	$0.37 0.37 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.3%	4	6.0	0.67×
Sticker \| Bad News Eagles (Glitter) \| Antwerp 2022sticker · #8847FF	1 in 16	$0.26 0.26 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.6%	1	2.2	0.46×
FAMAS \| Colony (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	12.1%	$0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	5	4.4	1.15×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=218, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

FAMAS | Colony (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.030.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x6h

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Catacombs (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.341.34 CSGOBIG_COIN0.45x6h

Sticker | olofmeister | London 2018sticker · #4B69FF$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.370.37 CSGOBIG_COIN0.12x6h

Souvenir P90 | Ancient Earth (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.440.44 CSGOBIG_COIN0.15x6h

Souvenir MP5-SD | Dirt Drop (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Gradebrede$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.582.58 CSGOBIG_COIN0.86x6h

Sticker | olofmeister | London 2018sticker · #4B69FF$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.370.37 CSGOBIG_COIN0.12x17h

FAMAS | Colony (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.030.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x17h

Sticker | Fade Lethalsticker · high$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.450.45 CSGOBIG_COIN0.15x1d

Sticker | Bad News Eagles (Glitter) | Antwerp 2022sticker · #8847FF$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.260.26 CSGOBIG_COIN0.09x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.71%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$3.00	89.71%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%Mil Spec Grade 1.5%classified 7.6%Consumer Grade 10.6%milspec 13.6%restricted 15.1%high 3.0%#B0C3D9 9.1%Mythical 4.5%#4B69FF 16.7%#8847FF 6.1%consumer 12.1%best hit —