Pearly

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$66.00

66 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $59.40 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.81%

26 openings, odds method

Variance

25.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 48

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

24 openings · below min

30 days

26 openings · below min

since tracking started

26 openings · below min

-0.5%150.3%301.0%

Small sample. 26 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	24	100.35%±200.2	—	odds
30d	26	92.81%±192.3	—	odds
All	26	92.81%±192.3	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 26 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 1,000	$8,800 8,800 CSGOBIG_COIN	14.8%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 100	$1,300 1,300 CSGOBIG_COIN	21.9%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 100	$1,150 1,150 CSGOBIG_COIN	19.4%	1	0.3	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 52	$314 314 CSGOBIG_COIN	10.1%	1	0.5	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 17	$223 223 CSGOBIG_COIN	21.6%	0	1.5	0.00×
Operation Bloodhound Access Passother · base	1 in 13	$40.16 40.16 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.2%	2	2.0	1.00×
Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 16	$36.53 36.53 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.9%	0	1.7	0.00×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Griffin (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 22	$18.09 18.09 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.4%	1	1.2	0.86×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$8.35 8.35 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.7%	1	1.3	0.75×
Sticker \| Mood Ring Strafe (Holo)sticker · remarkable	1 in 31	$4.30 4.3 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	2	0.8	—
AUG \| Stymphalian (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 12	$1.83 1.83 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	3	2.2	1.39×
FAMAS \| Contrast Spray (Field-Tested)weapon · #777777	1 in 156	$1.61 1.61 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	0	0.2	—
P90 \| Module (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 11	$1.54 1.54 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	3	2.3	1.29×
P250 \| Inferno (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted	10.2%	$0.64 0.64 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	3	2.7	1.13×
Sticker \| ISSAA (Foil) \| Berlin 2019sticker · #8847FF	10.9%	$0.24 0.24 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	2	2.8	0.71×
Dual Berettas \| Heist (Field-Tested)weapon · grey	1 in 14	$0.22 0.22 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	4	1.8	2.19×
CZ75-Auto \| Distressed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 39	$0.12 0.12 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	0	0.7	—
MP9 \| Army Sheen (Field-Tested)weapon · grey	1 in 10	$0.09 0.09 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	2	2.5	0.80×
Sealed Graffiti \| Bling (Blood Red)graffiti · #B0C3D9	1 in 78	$0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	1	0.3	—
MP7 \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 26	$0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	0	1.0	—

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=22, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Black Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertsarz$66.0066 CSGOBIG_COIN$1,1501,150 CSGOBIG_COIN17.42x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P250 | Inferno (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted$66.0066 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.640.64 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x1d

P250 | Inferno (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted$66.0066 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.640.64 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x3d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Black Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertsarz$66.0066 CSGOBIG_COIN$1,1501,150 CSGOBIG_COIN17.42x3d

Sticker | Mood Ring Strafe (Holo)sticker · remarkable$66.0066 CSGOBIG_COIN$4.304.3 CSGOBIG_COIN0.07x3d

★ Stiletto Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife$66.0066 CSGOBIG_COIN$314314 CSGOBIG_COIN4.75x3d

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$66.0066 CSGOBIG_COIN$8.358.35 CSGOBIG_COIN0.13x3d

Operation Bloodhound Access Passother · base$66.0066 CSGOBIG_COIN$40.1640.16 CSGOBIG_COIN0.61x3d

AUG | Stymphalian (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary$66.0066 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.831.83 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x5d

Operation Bloodhound Access Passother · base$66.0066 CSGOBIG_COIN$40.1640.16 CSGOBIG_COIN0.61x5d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$66.00	90.00%	20

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 6.9%#EB4B4B 1.0%covert knife 1.9%base 7.7%restricted 10.9%classified 5.1%remarkable 3.2%Legendary 8.3%#777777 0.6%mil spec 9.0%Restricted 10.2%#8847FF 10.9%grey 16.6%#4b69ff 2.6%#B0C3D9 1.3%consumer 3.8%best hit $1,150 (17.42x)