Geometric Gems
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.00
5 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.88%
EV $4.49 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.91%
7 openings, odds method
Variance
172.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
66.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 7 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=222, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | electronic (Glitter) | Rio 2022sticker · #8847FF$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.300.3 CSGOBIG_COIN0.06x
Sticker | electronic (Glitter) | Rio 2022sticker · #8847FF$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.300.3 CSGOBIG_COIN0.06x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.88%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.00 | 89.88% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%#EB4B4B 1.5%#D32CE6 9.1%covert 7.6%#8847FF 25.7%#5E98D9 3.0%consumer 12.1%violet 16.7%#d2d2d2 4.6%#4b69ff 6.1%Base Grade 13.6%best hit —