Surreal Dreamscape
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$100.00
100 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $90.00 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
25.77%
2 openings, odds method
Variance
14.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 2 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=224, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$100100 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.090.09 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$100100 CSGOBIG_COIN$51.4551.45 CSGOBIG_COIN0.51x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $100 | 90.00% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 16.5%#EB4B4B 1.0%covert 16.5%covert knife 13.5%#D32CE6 10.5%#B0C3D9 12.0%Mil Spec Grade 7.5%gray 9.0%industrial 13.5%best hit —